Most Likely 2025 First Round Pick(s) for the Steelers
Things are getting interesting around the league as the 2025 NFL Draft looms just a week from now. This draft cycle has been a fun one to follow, because analysts and casuals alike all seem to agree on one thing: outside of the top 3, nobody knows a damn thing that’s going to happen. The collective ignorance has made for some interesting reading material and debate material among my football circle.
With that being said, there’s enough information out there to make some educated guesses about what teams are most likely to do. If yinz are like me, then you’re sick and tired of reading mock drafts, so, for now, I’m just going to focus on the first round. To be clear: this is not a wishlist. This is simply a list of the guys that I think are the most likely to become Pittsburgh Steelers next Thursday based on the list of pre-draft visits put out by the team, countless mock drafts, recent news from around the league, and team needs. As I see it, the Steelers’ biggest team needs as of right now are: DL, RB, QB, DB, and WR (depending on who you ask). I will start off at #6 with the least likely scenario, and move toward the most likely at #1 (in my opinion). Let’s go!
Honorable Mentions:
Matthew Golden - WR from Texas (don’t think he’ll be there at 21)
Shedeur Sanders - QB from Colorado (don’t think he’ll be there at 21)
Kaleb Johnson - RB from Iowa (my favorite RB prospect; widely recognized as a second round pick; only see this happening if we trade back)
Malaki Starks - S from Georgia
6. Nick Emmanwori - S from South Carolina
Emmanwori is widely mocked to be the first safety off the board in this year’s draft, which is funny to me, because I don’t think he’s the best safety in this draft class. However, with measurables like his, it becomes quickly apparent why teams are interested. At 6 '3, 220+ lbs., with a 4.38 40-yard dash and a 43” vertical jump, he quite literally JUMPS off the film at you, at times.
Emmanwori is a weird prospect, and I’m not quite sure how to feel about him. On one hand, he’s undoubtedly one of the most athletic prospects of any position in this entire draft. However, he doesn’t really stand out, to me, in any area among the other safeties in this draft class, outside of his athleticism. He’s slow to read and react in coverage and often doesn’t trust his eyes. He’s unable or unwilling to diagnose route concepts, and would rather just stick to guys using his size and speed. Then, maybe most frustratingly, he struggles to get off blocks when he’s in the box playing the run. When it comes to tackling and testing, he’s as physical as they come, but that simply doesn’t translate to the field when he’s asked to take on blockers and defend the run. There’s no denying that he brings tremendous versatility and upside to whatever team takes him, and maybe taking a year to sit behind guys like DeShon Elliot and Minkah Fitzpatrick is exactly what a raw prospect like him needs. And, maybe he’s able to come in and give you valuable snaps at NB from time to time this year. For a first round pick, though, that’s risky.
With that in mind, I have him on this list as the least likely prospect to end up in the black and gold, because I think he will be gone by the 21st pick. But, let’s say he’s still there at 21: I would consider him to be a bit of a luxury pick for the Steelers if they took him, because safety is not a position of need for this team. It would be hard, in my opinion, to justify taking Emmanwori ahead of most of the other names on this list, assuming any of them are still on the board when the Steelers’ time comes.
5. Omarion Hampton - RB from North Carolina
I had some harsh words about Omarion Hampton back in February. I’ve never been shy about sharing that, at times, I let emotion cloud my judgement, and my previous words about Omarion Hampton, calling him a “poor man’s version of Najee Harris”, are a prime example of that. I am a big fan of Najee Harris, and I was feeling some type of way about the fact that we were gearing up to let him go, which we did.
The funny thing about it is, if we quickly gloss over Omarion Hampton’s strengths, they certainly read like a Najee Harris clone. He is a strong runner with TREMENDOUS contact balance…I mean he basically pinballs off would-be tacklers and hardly loses momentum if he loses any at all. He also ranked second in the nation in yards after contact when he was hit behind the line of scrimmage, according to PFF. Those traits are Najee-Harris-esque. However, the comparison becomes unfair to Hampton when you factor in a few other traits of his. He doesn’t have the best vision in the world looking for cut-back lanes and things like that, but he does have tremendous stop/start ability, which also helps him make guys miss in the open field. Then, the biggest thing that separates him from the former Steelers’ first round pick is that home-run-ability. There’s no denying that Hampton can step in and be immediately effective in the zone-blocking scheme of Arthur Smith, and if the o-line can take a step forward from last season, Hampton can break those 40, 50, 60 yard runs that we have sorely missed for a long time.
Having said all that, I don’t think Omarion Hampton makes it to the 21st pick, and I also think that certain guys from position(s) of need would have to be gone before the Steelers went this route. Alas, this is my 5th most likely draft pick.
4. Emeka Egbuka - WR from Ohio State
Early on in the offseason, it seemed like every mock draft imaginable had Egbuka going to the Steelers with the 21st overall pick. I certainly felt that way when I did a prospect spotlight on him early last month. Of course, a lot has changed since then. For starters, many folks around the league believed, at that time, that Justin Fields would likely be back with the Steelers in 2025, which would have given us some semblance of security at the quarterback position. Needless to say, that didn’t happen. Then, Omar Khan made one of the biggest moves of the offseason so far, trading for former Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf, which obviously somewhat negates the nationwide consensus that the Pittsburgh Steelers WR room is lacking. So, why Egbuka?
Let me start off by saying that Luther Burden III and Matthew Golden could absolutely be in play for us as well. I went with Egbuka, because I think of these three guys, Egbuka is the most polished route runner, which the Steelers should value more with two homerun threats on the roster in George Pickens and D.K. Metcalf.
Egbuka has the reputation for being a hard hat and lunch pail guy. During his time at Ohio State, he had to play alongside some megastars like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jeremiah Smith, and yet he shut the hell up, made the plays when they were drawn up for him, and came out the other side of it as the leading receiver in Ohio State history. Mel Kiper described him as “...the ultimate professional.” That should be music to the Steelers’ ears knowing they have big personalities like Metcalf and Pickens in that WR room.
While we’re in quarterback purgatory, we might as well load up on weapons so that if and when we find somebody, they’re put in an ideal situation. Egbuka at 21 makes a whole lot of sense.
3. Kenneth Grant - DL from Michigan
At the beginning of the offseason, Kenneth Grant quickly emerged as my favorite prospect for the Steelers with the 21st pick. At the time that I did my prospect spotlight on him, I feared that the need for WR was so glaring that there’s no way the Steelers would pass on an opportunity to get a pass catcher in the first round. Now that we’re deep into the offseason, and the roster looks a bit different, defensive line looks like, arguably, the team’s biggest weakness outside of QB.
Grant has emerged as a Steeler-fan-favorite prospect throughout the offseason and pre-draft process. The word is out that there’s this big ass, 6 ‘3, 340+ lb. freak that is chasing down running backs in the open field, and to many fans, myself included, that sounds pretty damn nice.
I said all kinds of nice things about Kenneth Grant in my prospect spotlight on him, but just to highlight them quickly…this guy should not be able to move as suddenly as he’s able to at his size. He had limited production as a pass rusher in college, but because of that suddenness that I just referenced, there’s tons of untapped potential in that regard. Also, I already kinda mentioned his ability to pursue the ball, but it’s worth mentioning that I don’t think there’s any IDL in this draft class that has the pursuit that Grant does. It’s actually scary as hell to think about.
However, the biggest knock on his game, without a doubt, is his pad level. I watched the Texas @ Michigan game from September of last season (I was actually watching Matthew Golden and Jayden Blue, not Kenneth Grant), but it struck me how much of a non factor Grant was in that game. I decided to run it back to confirm my suspicion that he was trash that day, and I was correct. Texas’ offensive line literally ELIMINATED Kenneth Grant from that ball game. Michigan tried to move him around the d-line, and it just didn’t matter. He was consistently standing straight up off the snap, and he was consistently getting moved wherever Texas wanted to put him. Then, they would run the ball right at him. And, he had no answer. So, no doubt his technique needs some work, but the good news is, the Steelers don’t need a guy to come in and be a game breaker day one (as long as they stay healthy). And, I can’t think of a better guy than Cameron freakin’ Heyward to coach this guy up and help him harness that ridiculous size and speed. I would welcome Kenneth Grant at 21st overall with open arms, although I acknowledge it would be RISKY.
2. Jaxson Dart - QB from Ole Miss
Shield your eyes Steelers’ fans. I know most of yinz don’t wanna hear that Jaxson Dart could very well end up in the black and gold, but it is a strong possibility that you just might have to accept. To address the obvious: I know about the Shedeur Sanders rumors, but I don’t think he makes it out of the top 10, and I know about the Jalen Milroe hype, but I don’t think the Steelers are going to take him in the first round.
Like it or not, Jaxson Dart brings a lot of good things to the table. He’s a legit dual threat both on option plays and as a scrambler, and he actually does a damn good job of keeping his eyes down field when he’s scrambling or climbing the pocket. He finished his 4 years of college with 1543 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. Then, when it came time to make the throws, he showed that he can absolutely spin it. He’s pretty damn accurate throwing at all three levels, and showed a propensity to throw with anticipation pretty consistently. With that being said, I know I’m not the only one that watched that Florida game from last year, so I have to acknowledge that there’s absolutely some head-scratching moments littered within Jaxson Dart’s film.
Everyone that follows football knows that evaluating QBs is not an exact science, and at the end of the day none of us truly know which QB in this draft class, or any draft class for that matter, is actually going to pan out at the NFL level. There is ABSOLUTELY a universe where Jaxson Dart has the best NFL career of all the guys in the 2025 draft class. He has the moxie, the toughness, and the tools. The more likely outcome is that he’s going to be an above average backup. But, let’s not act too surprised, or burn the city of Pittsburgh down, if the front office decides to take a Dart throw on him (pun kinda intended). I don’t REALLY think it’ll happen, which is why I have this as my second-most-likely outcome, but if it did…I would understand it.
1. Derrick Harmon - DL from Oregon
Derrick Harmon is probably the prospect most-often-mocked to the Steelers this draft cycle; especially since the news about Derrick Carr came out, which has a lot of folks thinking the Saints will now go quarterback in round 1.
Harmon is another guy whose measurables have analysts and scouts salivating over him. He has the size, strength, and length to win OFTEN, especially in a stunt-heavy system like the one he played in at Oregon. No doubt, he knows how to get himself into opposing teams’ backfields, leading the country with 49 pressures in 2024. Even against the run, he has the smarts and the ability to get himself in the way of opposing backs. It’s what he does when it’s just him and the QB or him and the RB that gives me cause to pause. According to PFF, Harmon had a 27% missed tackle rate in 2024. That is an ABSURD number, and while it’s hard to find concrete data on the more recent NFL seasons, in 2018-19, the average missed tackle rate for an NFL DL was 8.5%. Needless to say, Derrick Harmon, regardless of trend changes over the last 5 or so years, is probably well above the current league average, and it’s not like the competition is going to get easier for him when he steps into an NFL locker room. The simple, hard-to-swallow truth is that he’s not agile enough to react to the subtle moves that QBs and RBs use to evade defenders.
I don’t mean to completely dunk on Derrick Harmon, though. Whether he finishes those plays or not, there’s value in a guy that is capable of disrupting plays by redirecting running backs or flushing out quarterbacks. The real question for me is…with a DL class as deep as this one, do you spend a first round pick on a guy like that?
Still Derrick Harmon is a smart player with the physical traits that you would want from a first round pick. Also, from day one, he’ll be able to line up just about anywhere along our defensive line, which is certainly something that makes him an attractive prospect, and he could be a contributor from the jump. Similar to Kenneth Grant, I think this is a guy that comes with some risk….but you’d hope that a guy like Cam Heyward (who honestly plays and looks similar to Harmon) would be able to help mold him into a consistent, 3-down starter. I believe Derrick Harmon will be a Pittsburgh Steeler next week.
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