Pregame Thoughts - A Real Test for the Steelers @ Washington
Photo via NFL+
Every year, the Steelers have games that wind up being among the best games of the year. Even last year, when our expectations were pretty damn low, we had one of the best games of the year, in my opinion, a 17-10 win against the Ravens when Kenny Pickett threw a go-ahead TD pass to George Pickens at the end of the game. Because of the history of the franchise, even when we’re irrelevant, we’re still going to be a major talking point, as was the case after that big win in October of last year.
Today, Steelers Nation travels to Washington D.C. to take on the 7-2 Washington Commanders, in what I suspect could be a season-defining game against one of the best teams in the NFL. Since the Commanders are in the NFC, I’m not prepared to call this game a must-win. However, this game should serve as a bit of a litmus test to see how we stack up against the premier teams in the league in 2024. If we want to be taken seriously as contenders, it starts today by taking care of business against the 2nd seed in the NFC.
The Commanders come into this game as MAYBE the best offense in football, ranking #1 in rushing efficiency, and #2 in passing efficiency. After what the Giants were able to do to us on the ground a couple weeks ago, the Commanders run game would’ve had me shaking in my boots had it not been for the fact that RB Brian Robinson has been ruled out for this one. Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols will handle the carries for this game. No doubt that’s a tough loss for them, but this offense goes where QB Jayden Daniels takes them, and right now there’s no reason to think he’s incapable of taking them to the Super Bowl. He uses his legs at the right times and has been one of the more efficient QBs throwing the football, especially in the intermediate pass game where he ranks top 5 in pretty much every metric in throws between 10 and 19 yards according to Next Gen Stats. I’ll be honest, though, I don’t care about that. We’re a solid tackling team that’s welcoming back the likes of Cam Sutton (suspension) and Damontae Kazee (injury) this week, to a Steelers secondary that I think was already one of the best in the league. What does make me nervous, though, is the turnover differential. The Steelers are +10 on the year, 3rd best in the league, which is awesome, but the Commanders take care of the football. They’re +5 on the year, which is 7th best in the league, but if they had a reasonably good defense, it would be much higher than that. Jayden Daniels has only thrown two INTs on the year, and I don’t think the Steelers are going to escape with a win in Washington without one. This week would be a GREAT time for Minkah Fitzpatrick to tap into that ballhawk that is hidden somewhere deep in his game; something we haven’t seen in a couple years. I don’t see us winning this game if we can’t generate a turnover or two. I’m putting the onus on the defense to win us this game, something they’re more than capable of doing.
As for the offense, this shouldn’t be a significant challenge for them. The Washington Commanders rank 28th against the run, and with Pittsburgh’s offensive line coming together, as a unit, in the run game over the last few weeks, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, and Cordarrelle Patterson (who’s returning from injury today), should be able to find running lanes this afternoon. The Commanders secondary has been OK against the pass. They added CB Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline, but he will not be available to them today as he deals with a lingering hamstring injury. We dodged a bullet there for sure. It’ll be interesting to see if we’re able to get WR Mike Williams involved in his first game in the black and gold. Similar to the defense, though, I think the success of the offense, or lack thereof, will be determined by the turnover battle. I can’t stress this enough….you MUST take care of the football; something we’ve done a good job of so far this season. Maybe just as important: we CANNOT have big plays and/or touchdowns coming off the board because of penalties (I’m looking right at you Broderick Jones). That shit might work against the Giants and the Broncos, but against the upper echelon of NFL teams, those are mistakes we can’t afford to be making. I don’t have very high hopes for that, but that’s the reality of the situation.
Turnover differential. Turnover differential. Turnover differential. Turnover differential. I cannot stress this enough: we HAVE TO WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE. This is probably the most nervous I've been about a game this year. I’m glad it’s an NFC opponent, because I’m not sure how much faith I have in this game, particularly in our offense to put up enough points to beat this team. It’s going to take a SPECIAL performance from a SPECIAL defense. Good on good. 6-2 vs. 7-2. These are the kinds of fuckin games that we look forward to when we have REAL championship expectations. We signed up for it, and here it is. I’m hyped. Let’s take over the Nation’s Capital.
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