Pregame Thoughts - Biggest Game of 2024 (so far) Ravens @ Steelers
It took us until week 11 to get our first taste of AFC North football, and it comes with some SERIOUS seeding implications. The Baltimore Ravens are traveling to the City of Steel for a good-on-good battle against the Pittsburgh Steelers, with the winner securing their hold on first place in the AFC North.
In my opinion, you have to go back to Antonio Brown’s Immaculate Extension on Christmas Day in 2016 to find a Steelers division game with more at stake than this one. It is, honestly, a little disappointing that this game has a 1 pm eastern kickoff, and isn’t in one of the primetime slots. That seems like a massive missed opportunity for the league, but I digress.
From an injury standpoint, the Ravens are going to be without former Steelers CB Arthur Maulet who is dealing with a calf injury. Their starting DL Travis Jones is questionable with an ankle injury. He’s no game changer against the run, but his absence would make them thin at DL and open up some running lanes for us, which could be crucial against a Ravens defense that is pretty stout against the run. Ravens S Kyle Hamilton will be playing after there was some concern earlier in the week that he could miss time with an ankle injury.
As for the Steelers, we will be without Alex Highsmith in this game. The addition of Preston Smith at the trade deadline makes the loss of Highsmith a little less painful. Also, probably the best injury news we got this week: Nick Herbig doesn’t have an injury designation heading into this game, and he will play. Herbig is still relatively new to this rivalry, but I believe he has SUPERSTAR potential, and with Highsmith out, he will suddenly shoulder a ton of responsibility in this game. I’d love to see him make a big play. Cory Trice Jr. was a full participant at practice all week, and I was also very excited about him potentially returning against the Ravens, but he has yet to be activated from IR and will be out. Lastly, Jaylen Warren is expected to play despite not logging any full practices this week. Back injuries can be tricky, so I wouldn’t imagine that his workload will be very high in this game.
Obviously, when you’re talking about the Ravens, the first thing you have to bring up is the reigning league MVP, Lamar Jackson. As much as I can’t stand the Ravens, I have to say, objectively, that it appears (for now) that he’s going to win the award again this season. A lot of that has to do with Derrick Henry. I saw this next gen stat when I was studying earlier (shoutout to NFL+ Pro): Jackson has completed 59 of his 78 play action passes (75.6%) for 753 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. That’s some elite stuff right there, but what the hell is a defense supposed to do? In my opinion, you can’t just let Derrick Henry kill you, so you sell on the run and hope to God that your DBs can hold up in man coverage. So far this season, Lamar Jackson has taken advantage of that, and that’s why the Ravens rank number one in the NFL in points per game at 31.8. I think, if you’re the Steelers, you have to stick with what has worked against Lamar Jackson in the past, and what worked last week against Jayden Daniels: the blitz. Against the Commanders, our pass rushers did an awesome job of staying in their rush lanes and cutting off any potential escape routes for Jayden Daniels. With that being said Lamar Jackson is a different beast, and even though our rush integrity was “awesome” last week, it probably needs to be perfect this week. And, even if we execute that part of our game plan to perfection, we still have the NFL’s leading rusher Derrick Henry to deal with. As much faith as I have in our defense, the Ravens are more than capable of moving the ball down field. There’s going to be a lot of pressure on our offense to put some points up on the board in this game.
I’m just going to put it bluntly: this is the worst the Ravens defense has been in a while, in my opinion. As I mentioned earlier, they’re pretty sturdy against the run, but they’re so unbelievably bad at the back end that their effectiveness against the run doesn’t scare me right now. Not with Russell Wilson throwing missiles like he has been the last three weeks. Since Russ took over as the starting QB in Week 7, the Steelers rank top 6 in scoring offense and total offense, according to Next Gen Stats. The Ravens rank 27th in total defense, and dead last against the pass. Oh, not to mention, they’ve allowed a league-high 83 receptions of 15 or more yards. And, guess who leads the league in deep ball catches (11) and yards (370)? George Pickens. The Steelers look perfectly comfortable running the hell out of the ball while taking the occasional deep shot down the field, and it has worked quite well so far this year. There’s really no excuse in this game…Pickens, Calvin Austin III, Mike Williams, and Pat Freiermuth are going to have their opportunities downfield. We need to be taking advantage of those opportunities, and maybe most importantly, not stalling drives or taking points off the board with penalties. The offensive line played a mostly clean game last week penalty-wise, and we’re going to need more of that against the Ravens.
When I think about this rivalry, I think about some really gritty, low-scoring matchups that come down to the last minute or so of the game. While I think that this game will be close, both offenses should be able to score some points. I just think the discrepancy between the Ravens defense and the Steelers offense is more significant than the Ravens offense and Steelers defense. This Ravens team can get got, and as excellent as their offense is, Mike Tomlin has been able to put mobile QBs in a chokehold in recent years. Plus, I don’t know what it is about this 2024 Steelers team…but they just have this aura about them that’s hard not to believe in. This is certainly a massive test for them, but one that I think they’re ready for and can overcome. I like the Steelers to pull away in this one in the 4th quarter…maybe after a Nick Herbig strip sack, or something. Whatever the outcome…it’s pretty damn nice to see the Steelers in some meaningful football games. We are so fuckin back. Here. We. Go.
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