SNF - Jets @ Steelers - Pregame Thoughts
In the year 2024, the Aaron-Rodgers-led Jets are traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Russell-Wilson-led Steelers on Sunday Night Football. Can you imagine how strange that sentence would’ve sounded a decade ago? But, here we are.
The Steelers come into this game 4-2, and the Jets come in 2-4. The Jets are still 2 point favorites in this game, despite their records and the fact that this game is in Pittsburgh, which I find interesting.
On the injury front, the Steelers will be without Nick Herbig, Zach Frazier, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Dylan Cook. Roman Wilson and Damontae Kazee both drew the questionable tag, although I don’t think either one of those losses would be game changing if they weren’t to play. Some good news for the Steelers, Alex Highsmith will be back this week after being out for the last month with a groin injury. Losing him and Herbig at the same time sucked ass, but having him back opposite of T.J. Watt, I would expect him to make an immediate impact. Highsmith will be working against Jets’ LT Tryon Smith, who has been flat out bad this year.
For the Jets, they’ll be without CB Michael Carter II, and potentially CB D.J. Reed, who drew a questionable tag, but didn’t practice at all this week. They round out a trio of corners, complete with Sauce Gardner, that is probably the most skilled in the league. Needless to say, if they were without two of their three best corners, and that’s the strength of their defense, that’s a problem. Especially considering that the Steelers might be looking to throw the football with Russell Wilson taking the reins at QB.
While I think that the Steelers are going to be looking to open up the offense a bit, I wouldn’t expect them to stray too far from their run-heavy identity. According to Next Gen Stats, the Jets defense has recorded a 39.1% pressure rate this season, 5th best in the NFL. They also create pressure with unblocked pass rushers at the 2nd highest rate in football, and with all the attrition we have along our offensive line, miscommunications are borderline EXPECTED at this point. Russell Wilson will be under fire, at times, in this game, for sure, and he doesn’t have wheels like Justin Fields does, so it’ll be interesting to see if he’s still able to move the ball down field more than we’ve seen so far this year. The Jets’ best pass rusher, Will McDonald, will likely spend most of the game matched up against Steelers RT Broderick Jones. If you read my content at all, you know how I feel about that. Incoming career day for Will McDonald.
Funny enough, when the Jets have the ball, it should be a similar story. The Jets offensive line has been flat out bad, and the Steelers pass rush is one of the best units in football when healthy. This feels like a game where you’ll hear the names T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith A LOT. That’s why the big news of the week, the Jets’ addition of WR Davante Adams, isn’t that big of a deal to me. Aaron Rodgers is still going to have to get him the ball, and he’s not going to have a ton of time to do so. I expect them to utilize the quick-passing game, like they have all season long (Aaron Rodgers is top 5 in quickest time to throw), and at that point, it’ll be up to our LBs and DBs to tackle. I wouldn’t expect much splash from this Jets offense.
The Jets run game shouldn’t be able to get anything going against our defense, so I’m not too worried about that. They’re ranked in the bottom 5 in pretty much every yards before contact metric that exists. Their offensive line is just terrible at creating running lanes. Meanwhile, the Steelers defense is the best in the NFL in allowed rushing efficiency. They should have a field day against the run.
This is a tough game to give a real prediction for. As I said in my post last night, we don’t really know what we have in Russell Wilson, yet. Unless something strange happens, I think both offenses are going to look pretty similar tonight. I can’t envision a scenario where either team is able to move the ball at will. With that being said, I think this game will come down to the turnover battle, and time of possession. Whichever run game is able to do enough to keep the offense in manageable downs is going to win the game as long as their offense takes care of the football. These are two fairly even matched teams from a talent perspective. That’s why it surprises me so much that the Steelers are two point dogs IN PITTSBURGH. That makes no sense to me. This is a very winnable game for us, but the Jets have lost three straight, so I fear they may come out with more urgency than we do. I hope I’m wrong. Jets. Steelers. Sunday Night Football. Here. We. Go.
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