The Moment We’ve all Been Waiting On - Chiefs @ Steelers - Pregame Thoughts
I’m not a fortune teller, and I can’t predict how the rest of this NFL season will shake out. We have secured a playoff spot, and maybe we get in there and make some real noise this postseason. Maybe we get in there and suck it up in the first round yet again. These last two games have humbled me from a fan’s perspective, and it has forced me to temper my expectations a bit. However, the Steelers injury report says that Donte Jackson, DeShon Elliot, George Pickens, and Larry Ogunjobi are all going to play for this one, and we have a chance to do what only one other team has done this year…secure a dub against the Chiefs, and hopefully restore some of the faith I had in this team a month ago.
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming to the City of Steel for a Christmas Day matchup against our Pittsburgh Steelers, who have been on a downward spiral over the last few weeks. The Chiefs come into this matchup with a 14-1 record and a firm grip on first place in the AFC. Still, between the Eagles-Ravens-Chiefs gauntlet that we’re in the middle of right now, I think this is the most winnable game of the three. I know that sounds crazy, but hear me out..,.
Stat via NFL Pro.
For starters, the Steelers will be healthier in today’s game than they were @ Philadelphia or @ Baltimore. DeShon Elliot’s absence really affected all levels of the defense, because of how versatile he is and the number of things he’s asked to do. His return to the lineup will help us both in run support and in coverage. Joey Porter Jr. was ruled out with a knee injury, so it will likely be Donte Jackson and Cory Trice Jr. taking a majority of the snaps at outside corner. James Pierre may also be fairly heavily involved in the game plan heading into this one. Mahomes is coming off a game against the Texans in which he had his fastest time to throw in a single game since 2021. Even though the Steelers pass rush hasn’t been up to par, in my opinion, in recent weeks, it may behoove the Chiefs to get the ball out quickly again this week just because of the sheer star power in our (underperforming) pass rush. If that’s the case, the Steelers are going to have to tackle well, but I think a guy like Cory Trice is going to be able to make those quick throws difficult for their receivers to haul in with his size. This is actually a really great matchup for him. No doubt, we will miss JPJ, but I am really hoping I’ve been right in my excitement about Trice coming into the year. He has a HUGE opportunity in today’s game.
Larry Ogunjobi will also return to the lineup today, which should help us out against the run. That couldn’t have come at a better time as we’re coming off a Derrick Henry masterclass in Baltimore just a few days ago. It’s going to be nice welcoming these fellas back in the fold just in time for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
This Chiefs offense has been wildly inconsistent this year, and it just doesn’t look very appetizing on paper, but every once in a while they’ll show you signs of greatness. I went back to their week 13 matchup against their division rival Las Vegas Raiders; a game in which their offense didn’t play that good, but, even still, I saw what they’re capable of. On the second play of the game, shown above, the Chiefs line up with 12-personnel, and stack their tight ends on the left side with Xavier Worthy out wide. One TE, Noah Gray, runs a seam route, the other, Travis Kelce, runs something like a stick route, and Xavier Worthy, who gets the ball here, runs an out route. If you just look at the spacing on the field for these receivers, plus the clean pocket for Patrick Mahomes, it looks down-right impossible to defend. Excellent play design by Matt Nagy/Andy Reid, and flawless execution by their offense.
They’ve certainly got a solid OC in Matt Nagy, but his job is certainly made easier by the fact that Mahomes is the QB of this offense. This play at the end of the second quarter is absolutely SICK. 25 seconds left in the half, Chiefs nowhere near FG range…but they have Patrick Mahomes and DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins fakes like he’s going to hit some kinda curl/cutback route, Patrick Mahomes pumps the ball in his direction, and Jack Jones bites on it…..and Hopkins just keeps going and runs right past him for an easy 34 yard completion. It’s hard to blame Jack Jones for biting there. That’s just a perfectly timed and executed play by two veterans that are among the best at their respective positions.
Patrick Mahomes’ Player Splits vs. Blitz via NFL Pro.
I think, defensively, slowing down Mahomes is going to begin with the pass rush. In this Raiders-Chiefs game that I studied, the Chiefs blitz the shit out of Mahomes, and it often worked in that game, but the numbers say that the blitz hasn’t necessarily been an effective way of slowing him down this year. Watt/Ogunjobi/Heyward/Highsmith & Herbig are good enough to win without sending extra guys, and they should be able to take advantage of the revolving door the Chiefs have had at tackle this year. I already kinda mentioned that Cory Trice and Donte Jackson are going to have to be aggressive in man coverage as Mahomes likes to get rid of the ball quickly this season. As true as that is, I think it’s equally, if not more important, that the guys covering the middle of the field are solid as well. Patrick Queen has been tremendous in coverage throughout most of this season, and that will have to continue today. With DeShon Elliot returning to the lineup, Minkah Fitzpatrick will likely return to his usual FS role, which is another elite body in the middle to keep things in check. Those two dudes (Mink and PQ) are going to need to be special today, as they’ll play a significant role in slowing down these two amazing tight ends…Travis Kelce and Noah Gray. Those two combined for 19 targets in this Raiders game from week 13. To say that they’re crucial pieces to this offense is a massive understatement.
Lastly, from a defensive perspective, Mahomes has been uncharacteristically careless with the ball this season. A lot of the INTs he’s had this year have truly just been bad balls by him. He has cleaned it up as of late, going 5 straight games without one, and he’s still sitting at 11 on the year. The Steelers are 2nd in the NFL in turnover differential, and they’re going to have to win that battle if they want to win today. We gotta get home with the four-man-pass-rush, we need to be physical within 5 yards in man coverage, and we need to force Mahomes into a mistake. We have more than enough talent to make this happen.
For the Steelers offense, with George Pickens back in the fold, you need to go out here and make some noise against a contender. We showed signs of life in last week’s game, offensively, but the turnovers by Russell Wilson were too much to overcome. Also, Chris Jones, who is having another DPOY-type of season, has been ruled out for today’s game. I came into the week just assuming he would play, and still coming in with the expectation that we better score 25+ in this game, and with Chris Jones now ruled out, there’s really no excuses for this group. Besides the absence of WR Ben Skowronek, who is a tremendous blocker for us outside, and the injury to QB Justin Fields, which we take with a grain of salt since he only gets a snap or two a game when he’s healthy, this is about as healthy as this offense is going to be this season. This is the unit you’re expected to ride into the playoffs with. It would be nice to be humming along offensively going into the postseason. That means, preferably, no pre-snap issues from Broderick Jones, no mistakes from Russell Wilson, and hopefully some hidden gems from OC Arthur Smith. If there was anything he’s been withholding from us from a play calling perspective this season, now’s the time to pull it out.
I’m feeling really good about this one, guys. We got healthy at the most crucial time possible, and the Chiefs are down their second best player. This is a dub.
Beat. The. Chiefs.
Beat. The. Chiefs.
Beat. The. Chiefs.
Beat. The. Chiefs.
Beat. The. Chiefs.
Merry Christmas yinz filthy animals!
Here we go!
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