The Steelers’ Ceiling and Floor for the 2024 Season
The 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers are arguably the biggest mystery in the NFL. Despite my optimism, I have to acknowledge that there are a lot of unknowns with this football team. Before I get into that, I want to point out the things I’m confident in about this 2024 group.
I am confident in…
The Defense
This is one of the best defenses in football. The defensive line was the biggest question mark on the defensive side of the ball during the offseason, and a few of those guys were absolute game wreckers during the preseason. If you weren’t feeling good about the d-line before, you should be now. Larry Ogunjobi, Demarvin Leal, and Montravius Adams were playing bully ball in the three preseason games, and Cam Heyward just inked a contract extension that probably seals his career as a one-team guy with us; I fully expect he’s amped up about that and ready to go out on a high note. Notice I haven’t even mentioned Keeanu Benton yet? If we stay healthy, we’re going to be just fine there.
As for EDGE guys, we’re probably the best in the league. Nick Herbig looks like he’s ready to emerge as a star in this league, which takes a lot of pressure off the shoulders of TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith. Between those three guys, QBs are going to be on their asses a lot this year.
I’d say the weakest area on the field for our defense is the DBs maybe? That’s hard to say considering our DBs include Minkah Fitzpatrick, Joey Porter Jr., and Cory Trice Jr. (whom I am HYPED about). Beanie Bishop Jr. has a lot to prove as our slot guy, but outside of him, we are solid if not ELITE all over the secondary.
The ILB spots are as solid as they’ve been in a long, long time. I don’t want to give Patrick Queen TOO MUCH credit, but Roquan Smith struggled last night against the Chiefs without Queen back there with him. I’m so excited about the freedom we’re going to have on the defensive side of the ball because of what Patrick Queen brings to this team.
This is a top five defense, in my opinion.
Mike Tomlin
Earlier this summer, Mike Tomlin signed a contract extension to remain with the team (at least) through the 2027 season. Yinzers far and wide were deeply upset about this, but that’s the reality of the situation.
Mike Tomlin has his flaws, for sure. The “never had a losing season” thing is super impressive, but his teams do get their asses kicked in the first round of the playoffs every single year, it seems; especially on defense. Now, attrition and a lack of talent at certain areas in the roster certainly have something to do with that, but if Mike Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the league, like I think he is, he should be able to overcome that.
To put it bluntly: Mike Tomlin has a target on his forehead to a lot of Steelers fans, and rightfully so. We have to see some playoff success if we’re going to be able to trust that he’s still that guy for us after all these years. I think this year is the best chance he’s had since 2017 to get a decent run in the playoffs, and I trust and believe that he and his staff will get it done.
I am less confident in…
Arthur Smith
I’ve lauded my approval of the hiring of Arthur Smith as the offensive coordinator all summer long. It’s clear that Mike Tomlin still values the old Steeler ways; run the ball and stop the run, and his hiring of Arthur Smith confirmed that. To be clear: I think Arthur Smith is probably the best option we had at OC, as the roster is presently constructed, and I am confident that the offense will be much better than it was last year. I’m just not as confident as I am in the defense. We didn’t really see much, schematically, during the preseason, so a lot of what we’ll see throughout this season will finally be unveiled to us in Atlanta on Sunday.
Najee Harris is probably ready to EAT knowing that he’ll be seeking a new contract from someone next year. Jaylen Warren is a hell of a change-of-pace from Naj, and he’s looking to build on his career average 5.1 yards per carry. Under Arthur Smith’s guidance, we ought to be near the top of the league on the ground, but a lot of that will depend on the offensive line. That’s a hell of a segway.
The Offensive Line
Ah…the offensive line. Another piece of this team that I’ve been confident in all summer, but that I’m pulling back on a bit. Everyone who was watching during the preseason knows that this o-line had some really weak moments. There have been a myriad of pre-snap issues, and a few bad injuries, including Isaac Seumalo, who has already been ruled out for our first game in Atlanta. Spencer Anderson will start at that left guard spot, which doesn’t concern me that much. We need Seumalo, but Anderson can get the job done in his absence. Troy Fautanu has been a full participant in practice, but all signs point to him dressing up as a backup on Sunday, with Dan Moore Jr. and Broderick Jones starting in the two tackle spots. That sentence was as painful to type as it was to watch those two clowns try and block anyone in the preseason. With the extra week off between preseason week three and regular season week one, hopefully Jones was able to sure up whatever was going on with that elbow of his. I still think by the end of the year, we will be happy with our offensive line. It just may take us some time to let that unit grow before we actually feel that way. For right now, I’m not very confident in them.
The Quarterbacks
The old adage is back to bite us in the ass: if you have two quarterbacks, you have none. We did this big song and dance, with Head Coach Mike Tomlin calling for a press conference to formally announce Russell Wilson as the Steelers starting quarterback, and in the matter of DAYS, that lingering calf injury flares up, and now Justin Fields could be starting for the black and gold in week one. I figure we won’t have any clarity on this matter until right before kickoff, so I can’t imagine there’s anyone in Steelers Nation, right now, that is confident in our current situation at quarterback. Optimistic? Sure. I’m that. But, CONFIDENT? Nah..
If the question is, would you prefer 75% of Russ or 100% of Justin Fields, then the answer is Fields by a mile. However, I spoke last week about preserving Fields’ confidence, and I stand by that. If you trot Justin Fields out there as QB1 on Sunday, he will LITERALLY be playing for his career. This is undoubtedly the best situation he’s been in during his NFL career, and his play will have to reflect that. If it doesn’t, and you move to Russ in the coming weeks or months, you’ve effectively cemented Justin Fields as a career backup in this league. Surely, the coaching staff has taken that into consideration, and they’re going to do whatever is best for them to win that football game in Atlanta. It’s just hard to sit here and say with a straight face that I’m confident in the situation as I sit here right now. Like…we have no idea who the starter in say…week 11 is going to be. We got some things to figure out.
Our Ceiling
via Steelers.com
I’m saying 13 wins is our ceiling. Emphasis on the word ceiling. Meaning best case scenario. I think for us to get to this point, the defense has to be top five right out the gate, and maintain that. I think the offense needs to be capable of putting up around 24 points per game, at least.
Taking a look at our schedule, there’s a nice path to 5-2 to start this off, with those two games against the Cowboys and the Jets that could be losses. In a best-case-scenario type of situation, we would split those two games and come out of that stretch 7-1, before moving to 8-1 heading into the bye week.
Life after the bye week could be BRUTAL, but a lot of that is AFC North ball against teams that we know all too well. Not only that, but I think the Philadelphia Eagles are severely overrated. We can smartly chalk up the Chiefs game as a loss, with splits against the Bengals and Ravens, and a win everywhere else, including Philadelphia.
13-4, and a top three seed in the AFC. It’s not likely, but it’s possible.
Our Floor
I’m going to go with 7-9, and Tomlin’s first losing season.
Ya know, I’ve seen a whole lot of folks in the National Media saying that Tomlin’s winning season streak is going to come to an end this year, as they say every single year. I think that’s a dog shit take. This roster is loaded with talent, and if it wasn’t for the NFL schedule makers trying to bury us, there’s no way in hell that would happen. But, in a worst-case-scenario kind of situation with injuries, and QB controversy, and a poor offensive scheme by Arthur Smith, I still think Tomlin is going to get us seven wins, because of his ability to just coach his ass off.
Realistically
There is a path for a lot of success for this team. Maybe we’re paying too much for our defense and ignoring our offense, and maybe that’ll come back and bite us in the ass. I believe we’re in for a roller-coaster-ride of emotions this season. I believe my power ranking of the Steelers at 13th in the league is pretty accurate at this juncture, making them a sorta fringe playoff team, which is how I truly feel about them. I think we will win 10 or 11 games, including big ones against the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Jets, and squeak into the playoffs.
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