TNF - Steelers @ Browns - Pregame Thoughts
Photo via NFL Pro
We are back in the kitchen, folks. The Pittsburgh Steelers are in the beautiful vacation hotspot known as Cleveland, OH for their second AFC North battle in 5 days; this time against the Cleveland Browns. Even though the Browns have a 2-8 record, the elements could make things interesting as the weather in Cleveland tonight will be in the mid-to-low 30s, with a wintery mix of rain and snow throughout the evening, and 20+ mph wind gusts. That’s bad news for Browns’ kicker Dustin Hopkins who is 1-for-4 on field goal attempts over his last two games. Meanwhile, the Wizard of Boz, Chris Boswell, is fresh off another AFC Special Teams Player of the Week performance against the Ravens where he went a perfect 6-for-6 on field goal attempts. Also, just a weird little fun-fact that Michael Lombardi pointed out on the Pat McAfee Show today: this will be the first time in Jameis Winston’s NFL career that he’s playing in a game below 40 degrees fahrenheit. It’ll be interesting to see how he looks in a cold, messy outdoor environment in Cleveland tonight.
In reality, this should be an easy win for the Steelers, mainly because of the lopsided matchup between the Browns’ offense and the Steelers’ defense. The Browns’ offense are 30th in passing efficiency and 24th in rushing efficiency. The Steelers’ defense ranks 10th and 3rd respectively in those categories. The Browns’ passing attack has been hit with a defibrillator in recent weeks with gunslinger Jameis Winston taking over as the starting QB…just not necessarily from an efficiency standpoint. Their offensive line has used 12 different combinations with at least 10 snaps together this season, 2nd-most in the league according to Next Gen Stats and NFL Pro. With their LT Jedrick Wills Jr. ruled out for this game, there’s a chance that it could be 13 different combinations after tonight. Needless to say, they’re struggling to stay healthy and it’s showing, especially with Nick Chubb’s production, or lack thereof, this season. One more Next Gen Stat for yinz: Browns players have been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 47.1% of their rush attempts this season, recording 0 or less yards on 23.3% of their carries. The Steelers do an excellent job of filling gaps and getting behind the line of scrimmage when defending the run, so I would expect a lot of 3-and-outs for the Browns offense with the weather looking how it does right now in Cleveland. The Browns also use empty formations on 16% of their offensive plays, which is the most in the NFL. Joey Porter Jr. and Beanie Bishop Jr. are both coming off (arguably) their best game(s) of the season, from a coverage standpoint, last week vs. BAL. I’m saying all this to say: I have faith that the Steelers defense is going to be able to handle whatever Browns’ OC Ken Dorsey has to throw at them.
Photo via NFL Pro
Things get a bit more interesting when you look at the matchup between the Steelers’ offense and the Browns’ defense. Obviously, as sick as it makes me (as a Steelers fan), the first name that comes to mind is Myles Garrett. He has recorded 141 pass rushes against Steelers T Dan Moore Jr. across 6 games since 2021, the most against one offensive lineman for Garrett in that span. These two are extremely familiar with each other, which probably bodes in our favor more than the Browns’. In all 141 of those pass rushes, Garrett has generated a 18.4% pressure rate, which is lower than his average pressure rate this season (20+%); so, not a bad job by Dan Moore Jr. in those matchups. Since trading Za’Darius Smith a few weeks ago, DE Isaiah McGuire has stepped in opposite of Myles Garrett. This is a Browns’ team that, like the Ravens last week, loves to blitz the quarterback. They blitz on 35.5% of all dropbacks, which is the 6th-highest rate in the league. Russell Wilson struggled mightily against the pressure of the Ravens defense, oftentimes hanging on to the ball way too long, and getting sacked 4 times in that game. With the weather being what it is, I expect to see a lot of 13 personnel, and a TON of Najee Harris in this one. Ideally, Russ would only throw the ball 20-25 times in this game. The Ravens DBs held up in coverage last week, and their DBs are terrible. The Browns’ DBs are pretty damn good, led by ball-hawk-extraordinaire Denzel Ward. In anticipation of tonight’s game, I went back and watched the film of every single time Denzel Ward was targeted this season (shoutout to NFL Pro for making that so easy). What I found was that he is still performing at an extremely high level in coverage, in the short, intermediate, and deep pass game, and he is still elite at playing the ball, even if it has only resulted in 1 INT so far this season. Thankfully, they don’t move him around very much. He stays pretty locked in to that LCB spot, so I wouldn’t expect him to be shadowing Pickens or anything like that. After that duck that Russell Wilson threw in the end zone last week, I don’t know that I want him targeting Ward’s side of the field in this game. Dan Orlovsky said this morning that we should expect to see a lot of single-high man coverage from the Browns’ defense tonight, so I know that Russ is going to have some deep ball opportunities, and if we’re able to hit on a couple of those, we should have no trouble dominating time of possession and securing a convincing, albeit low-scoring win.
Here’s the thing, even if EVERYTHING that I just highlighted doesn’t work out in our favor, the Steelers are +11 in turnover differential, compared to the Browns’ -5. The Steelers are just so good at forcing turnovers, both on defense and special teams, and with small-hands Jameis Winston, getting his first ever cold-weather start, and he’s already one of the most turnover-prone QBs of all time…I just can’t envision a scenario where we blow this one. But, this is still the Pittsburgh Steelers, so the Browns will probably find a way to make this game interesting, just because that’s what the fuck we deal with as Steelers fans. But, this team is different, right? This team is special, right? Aren’t we Super Bowl contenders? I think so. Steelers win 24-13. That’s my prediction.
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